EXIT POLL RESULTS OF KOLKATA CIVIC ELECTION OF 2010

Arindam: - Hello viewers. Today in our special episode of ‘WINE WITH ARINDAM’ on your favorite TV channel, ‘Royal Bengal Tigers (RBT)’ TV, we have invited the statistician and political analyst, Mr. Sain. Mr. Sain, just tell us in brief about the present condition of politics in West Bengal.

Mr. Sain: - West Bengal politics is such a ‘Hotchpotch’ food, where you can hardly recognize the real ingredients of it. In brief, I can say that the people of Bengal want to experience a political change. It’s a long awaited demand for them. But, the biggest challenge is to select the right alternative.

Arindam: - Just a second. What is the confusion in selecting the right alternative? Indirectly, are you trying to say that Mamata Banerjee may not be the right alternative for Buddhadev Bhattacharya.

Mr. Sain: - If there is a strong alliance between TMC and INC, then Mamata Banerjee has the edge, but if not, then Pranab Mukherjee becomes the tough competitor for Mamata Banerjee. And on the other hand, BJP of West Bengal is not having any top-notch experienced Bengali politician in their party. Therefore, BJP will not be considered as a feasible alternative as of now.

Arindam: - Ok, now, what is your opinion about the forthcoming civic election of Kolkata? Who will win the battle? We have also got the information that you people have done some online surveys about it.

Mr. Sain: - In my opinion, the Kolkata civic election will be as thrilling as a T-20 cricket match, where it’s the fight between CPI(M) and TMC. No one will get majority, unless either of the two parties get support from some third party. We have done online survey of all the voters of Kolkata. Based on our sampling analysis, we have got some results. The results can vary by 5% to 10%, but not beyond that. Our sample size is 68,439. We started taking feedbacks from the Kolkata voters, who were online from 15th February 2010 to 15^th May 2010 in our website.

Arindam: - So, the Kolkata voters, who have given their responses, are all Internet-savvy persons. Therefore, there is a chance that majority of voters in your sample are from educated middle class family only.

Mr. Sain: - Yeah, that’s a drawback in our online survey. We have not got the response from the poor illiterate voters of Kolkata, who never surf Internet.

Arindam: - Anyway, I think that our viewers are waiting eagerly to know the “EXIT POLL RESULTS FOR THE KOLKATA CIVIC ELECTIONS OF 2010”.

Mr. Sain: - Ok, then let me disclose it. In this civic election, it is expected that BJP will get 5 seats, INC will get 13 seats, CPI (M) will get 59 seats and TMC will get 64 seats.

Arindam: - Just hang on. In this case, are you considering the alliance between INC and TMC?

Mr. Sain: - No, we have not considered the alliance between TMC and INC. Had we considered the alliance, then, the results would have changed a little bit, as per our trend analysis tools. In that case, BJP would have got 3 seats, INC would have got 17 seats, CPI (M) would have got 52 seats and TMC would have got 69 seats.

Arindam: - Hmm…so, the break-up of the TMC-INC alliance will give advantage to CPI (M)?

Mr. Sain: - Yeah, of course. In many wards, the anti-CPI (M) voters are confused about whom to select between TMC and INC. In this confusion, CPI (M) is the gainer, but not too much also.

Arindam: - What about BJP? The sample results are showing that BJP will get 5 seats, which means that BJP will get two more extra seats. Is it a healthy sign for BJP in Bengal?

Mr. Sain: - Not so much healthy, but still, I would say that BJP supporters are increasing in Bengal, especially in North Bengal areas. On the other hand, the INC supporters are increasing in the adjoining districts of Kolkata. The INC can surprise everyone by winning some important wards, as they have highly qualified contestants. TMC has the edge, but their vote percentage will decrease due to lack of unity within their party. New young candidates of CPI (M) can do wonders than the old ones, but CPI (M) may lose their strong wards.

Arindam: - Thanks for your information. Viewers, we will end our show here. See you later, till then, Goodbye.